India: India in the Late Twentieth Century

India in the Late Twentieth Century

In mid-1973, India and Pakistan signed an agreement providing for the release of prisoners of war captured in 1971 and calling for peace and friendship on the Indian subcontinent. Also in 1973, India's ties with the USSR were strengthened by a new aid agreement that considerably increased Soviet economic assistance; at the same time, relations with the United States improved somewhat. In 1974, India became the world's sixth nuclear power by exploding an underground nuclear device in the Thar Desert in Rajasthan state. Also in 1974, Gandhi's position was put under intense pressure by opponents who criticized her government for abusing its powers and in 1975 her 1971 election to the Lok Sabha was invalidated.

Despite the declaration of a state of emergency and the initiation of several relatively popular public policy programs, the opposition campaign and the growing power of her son Sanjay Gandhi contributed to a 1977 election defeat for Gandhi and the New Congress party at the hands of a coalition known as the Janata (People's) party. The Janata party soon became fractured, however, and in Jan., 1980, Indira Gandhi and her new Congress (Indira) party won a resounding election victory. Less than six months later Sanjay Gandhi, expected by many to be his mother's successor, was killed in a plane crash.

In 1982, Sikh militants began a terrorism campaign intended to pressure the government to create an autonomous Sikh state in the Punjab. Government response escalated until in June, 1984, army troops stormed the Golden Temple in Amritsar, the Sikh's holiest shrine and the center of the independence movement. Sikh protests across India added to the political tension, and Indira Gandhi was assassinated by two Sikh members of her personal guard in October. The resulting anti-Sikh riots (some incited by local Congress party leaders) prompted the government to appoint Indira's eldest son, Rajiv Gandhi, prime minister. Rajiv moved quickly to end the rioting and thereafter pursued a domestic policy emphasizing conciliation among India's various conflicting ethnic and religious groups. In 1989 he was defeated by the Janata Dal party under the leadership of Vishwanath Pratap Singh.

While India's economic performance was generally stable in the 1980s, it experienced continuing problems politically, including border and immigration disputes with Bangladesh, internal agitation by Tamil separatists, violent conflicts in Assam, strife caused by the Sikh question, and continued antagonism between Hindus and Muslims. From 1987 to 1990, the Indian military occupied the northern area of Sri Lanka in an unsuccessful attempt to quell the Tamil separatist insurgency.

In 1990, Singh resigned as prime minister; Chandra Shekhar, leader of the Samajwadi Janata party (a Janata Dal splinter party), became prime minister with Congress's support, but he resigned after several months and elections were called. Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated during an election rally in 1991 and was succeeded as head of the Congress party by P. V. Narasimha Rao. The Congress party won the ensuing election and Rao became prime minister. He immediately instituted sweeping economic reforms, moving away from the centralized planning that had characterized India's economic policy since Nehru to a market-driven economy, greatly increasing its foreign investment and trade.

Religious conflict sparked by militant Hindus and exploited by Hindu political parties was a persistent problem in the 1980s and led to bloody riots in 1992. In early 1996 a bribes-for-favors corruption scandal dating back to the early 1990s, described by some as the worst since independence, hit the Rao administration. Several ministers were forced to resign, and the Congress party, which had governed the country for all but four years since 1947, found itself in crisis. Rao himself was rumored to be involved in the scandal, and the main opposition political group, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), was also implicated.

The May, 1996, general elections proved a debacle for the Congress party, which finished third, its worst ever electoral showing. The BJP won the most parliamentary seats but fell well short of a majority, and the government it formed lasted for less than two weeks. An uneasy coalition government of leftist, regional, and lower-cast parties was then formed under the prime ministership of H. D. Deve Gowda. In Deve Gowda's United Front government, lower-caste Indians, southerners, and religious minorities assumed more important roles than ever before, but the coalition was dependent on the tacit support of the Congress party. Less than a year later, in Apr., 1997, the leadership changed hands again, and I. K. Gujral became prime minister; he resigned seven months later. Following elections held early in 1998, the BJP and its allies won the most seats and BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee was named prime minister. His government fell after losing a vote of confidence in Apr., 1999, but following a solid victory in the elections in September, he formed a new coalition government.

In May, 1998, India detonated three underground nuclear explosions, after which the United States imposed economic sanctions. Two more blasts followed, and Pakistan followed suit by conducting its own nuclear tests. In May, 1999, India launched a military campaign against Islamic guerrillas who were occupying strategic positions in the Indian-held part of Kashmir, and who India denounced as being sponsored by Pakistan; the rebels withdrew by the end of July. Portions of W Gujarat (in W India) were devastated by an earthquake early in 2001.

Talks in July, 2001, between Vajpayee and Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler, ended sourly, without any progress concerning Kashmir. In September the economic sanctions imposed by the United States were removed, as the Bush administration pursued closer relations with India. Relations with Pakistan, in contrast, were further aggravated by the suicide bombing of Kashmir's state assembly building by Pakistani-supported militant Muslim guerrillas in October, and reached a crisis point and diplomatic break in December after guerrillas launched a terror attack on the Indian parliament. India insisted the Pakistan end all such attacks. The border with Pakistan was closed, and Indian troops were mobilized along it.

Tensions eased somewhat when Pakistan moved to shut down the groups responsible for most terror attacks in India (although most arrested militants were later released) and Musharraf subsequently announced (Jan., 2002) that Pakistan would not tolerate any groups engaging in terrorism. Localized Hindu-Muslim violence, centered mainly in Gujarat and unrelated to events in Kashmir, erupted in early 2002, and BJP members and the BJP government there was accused of complicitiy in the riots.

War with Pakistan again loomed as a possibility in May, 2002, when attacks by Muslim guerrillas once again escalated. The chance that such a conflict might turn into a nuclear confrontation prompted international efforts to defuse the crisis. A pledge by Musharraf to stop infilitration across the line of control in Kashmir led to the apparent end of active government sponsorship of such infilitration, although it did not stop it. The move eased the crisis, and in October the two nations began a troop pullback. Diplomatic relations were restored in May, 2003, and situation slowly improved during the rest of 2003 and the following year. Also in 2003, India signed a border pact with China that represented an incremental improvement in their relations; a new agreement two years later called for the two nations to define their disputed borders through negotiations.

Indian parliamentary elections in the spring of 2004 resulted in an unexpected victory for the Congress party, which subsequently formed a 20-party coalition government. Sonia Gandhi, Congress's leader, declined to become prime minister, perhaps in part because of concerns over her foreign birth. Instead, Manmohan Singh, a technocrat and former finance minister, led the new government. In Dec., 2004, India's SE coast and Andaman and Nicobar Islands were devastated by an Indian Ocean tsunami. More than 14,000 people died, and hundreds of thousands were made homeless. Maoist rebels, largely insignficant since the 1980s, became an increasing problem for the government in E India, especially in Chhattisgarh and neighboring states, beginning in 2004.

By Apr., 2005, relations with Pakistan had improved to the point that Pakistani president Musharraf visited India, and during the subsequent months the two nations increased cross-border transport links, including in Kashmir, and improved intergovernmental cooperation and trade relations. Although the devastation from the Oct., 2005, earthquake in N Pakistan was much greater there, Indian Kashmir, where more than 1,300 died, and other parts of India were also affected by the temblor. After the earthquake India and Pakistan eased border crossing restrictions in Kashmir.

In Mar., 2006, India reached an agreement with the United States that ended a U.S. moratorium on reactor fuel and components sales to India. Under the pact India agreed to open most of its nuclear reactors to international inspections for the first time. U.S. critics of the deal pointed out, however, that the Indian military was permitted to retain uninspected control of fast-breeder reactors, enabling it to increase its production of plutonium for nuclear weapons. The Communist allies of the Congress party also objected to the deal on the grounds that it infringed on India's sovereignty, and their objections to it threatened to bring down the government in 2007.

A series of bomb attacks on the Mumbai rail system on July 11, 2006, killed some 200 people and injured 700; it was initially unclear who mounted them, though the police suspected a Muslim terror group. The attack was the worst of several in 2006 and 2007. India-Pakistan peace talks were suspended as a result of the attack. In Sept., 2006, Indian police said that Pakistan's intelligence agency was involved in planning the attack, a charge Pakistan denied, but the Indian prime minister said the he would provide Pakistan with evidence of the agency's involvement. The peace talks resumed in Nov., 2006, and in Feb., 2007, an agreement intended to prevent an accidental nuclear war between the two nations was signed. The monsoons of 2007 brought serious flooding in parts of India, especially Assam, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. Assam was particularly hard-hit, experiencing three waves of flooding that affected some 12 million people. The same states were hit by serious monsoon flooding in 2008 as well.

The first negotiations with Pakistan since a civilian government came to power there occurred in May, 2008, but after a July terror attack against its embassy in Afghanistan India accused Pakistan of continuing to support terrorist violence against it. In July, 2008, the Communists withdrew from the governing coalition after the prime minister decided to proceed with the nuclear pact signed with the United States. With the support of the pro-business Samajwadi party, other small parties, and independents, the Congress-led minority government survived a confidence vote later in July, ending months of indecision on the pact. The opposition, however, accused the government of attempting bribery to win the relatively close vote. In September the International Atomic Energy Agency approved lifting a ban on nuclear trade with India, and the U.S. Congress ratified the nuclear agreement with India.

In 2008 India again experienced a series of terrorist bombings in which a number of cities were struck several times in one day; those attacks were apparently the work of Indian Islamic militants. In November, however, Islamic terrorists from Pakistan attacked several sites in Mumbai, killing more that 170 people. India demanded that Pakistan take action against those it said were linked to the attacks, leading to increased tensions with Pakistan.

Maoist rebels, which by 2009 were operating over a large area in E and central India, launched significantly more serious attacks in 2009, leading the government to begin a major counterinsurgency offensive against them later in the year. In Feb., 2009, Pakistan acknowledged that the Mumbai attack was partially planned in and launched from Pakistan, and said that it had arrested of number of individuals in connection with the attack; in 2010 the Indian government accused Pakistan intelligence agency of being involved in the planning of the attack. Congress and its allies won an increased plurality in the May, 2009, parliamentary elections, and again formed a coalition government with Singh as prime minister.

Beginning in 2010, the government was tarnished by a series of scandals, including one involving the 2010 Commonwealth Games and another involving telecommunications licenses in which Singh was queried by the supreme court concerning what it termed months of alleged inaction. The situation led to protests in 2011, including a hunger strike in August by activist Anna Hazare, in favor of stricter anticorruption legislation, but political divisions stymied attempts to pass legislation before the end of the year. A bill ultimately was passed in Dec., 2013. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan agreed in Feb., 2011, to resume formal peace talks, which had been suspended since the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, and in Apr., 2012, Pakistan's President Zadari made an unofficial visit to India.

A massive electrical power outage in July that affected half of India (the north, northeast, and east grids) highlighted the nation's generating capacity shortage; the nation's north grid failed two days in a row. In August a new scandal, concerning the sale of government coal fields on the basis of recommendations by the states, broke; the national auditor asserted that the government had lost large sums as a result of questionable sales. In Sept., 2012, the government launched reforms designed to increase investment in the economy.

Unseasonably early heavy rains in June, 2013, led to flash flooding and landslides that killed some 6,000 people in Uttarakhand state, in N India; more than 100,000 people were stranded and needed to be evacuated. The April–May, 2014, parliamentary elections resulted in a landslide victory for the BJP and its electoral alliance; the BJP alone won a majority of seats in what was the largest electoral victory since 1984. Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, became prime minister. A lack of an upper house majority, however, subsequently hindered enactment of proposed tax and land acquisition changes.

In Dec., 2015, Modi made a surprise visit to Pakistan, but hopes for a warming with India's neighbor were tempered in Jan., 2016, when Kashmiri separatists widely regarded as sponsored by Pakistan's intelligence agency attacked India's Pathankot air force base in Punjab. An attack against a base in Kashmir in September further aggravated the situation with Pakistan, and there were recurring exchanges of fire between Indian and Pakistani forces in Kashmir until late May, 2018. In July, 2016, violent civilian protests erupted in Kashmir after security forces killed a militant Muslim separatist leader there, and heightened tensions continued in Kashmir through 2018. In Nov., 2016, the government abruptly invalidated and replaced the bulk of India's banknotes to fight corruption and tax evasion, but the move disrupted the country's largely cash-based economy.

Tensions flared with China in mid-2017 after Bhutan accused China of building a road in a strategic (and disputed) area on the W Bhutan border in contravention of a 2012 agreement. Bhutan sought India's aid, and a three-month standoff between Indian and Chinese forces resulted. A suicide bombing in Kashmir in Feb., 2019, that killed 46 Indian paramilitary police led to a retaliatory air strike against an alleged terrorist base in Pakistan; Pakistan then responded with air attack of its own. There also was significant skirmishing between the two countries in Kashmir.

In the Apr.–May, 2019, parliamentary elections, the popular Modi led the BJP's electoral alliance to an increased majority. In Aug., 2019, Modi abolished the constitutionally guaranteed semiautonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir state and divided it into two federally administered union territories (effective in October), creating the newly established Ladakh from the eastern districts of the former state of Jammu and Kashmir. At the same time the Indian government imposed a severe military clamp down on the area and restricted communications. This and the supreme court decision to permit construction of a Hindu temple in Ayodhya contributed to a sense among many Muslims that they were becoming second-class citizens. A proposed national register of citizens (already in place in Assam, where it largely but not exclusively affected Muslims from Bangladesh) and passage of a citizenship law making it easier for non-Muslims from Muslim-majority Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan to secure citizenship further aggravated the situation. After enactment of the law in December, there were demonstrations against it in many areas, and protests continued into Jan., 2020; there were deadly Hindu-Muslim clashes in Delhi in February.

In March, Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of COVID-19. Some of the restrictions on industry and farming were eased in April. Concerns over the negative economic effects of the lockdown led to its end in June; the economy contracted by 24% in the second quarter and went into the first recession in more than two decades in the third quarter. Subsequently, India became one of the nations with largest number of cases, with numbers rising dramatically in July–September and then continuing to climb but at a steadily easing rate. States imposed localized lockdowns. A second wave of COVID-19 occurred beginning in April 2021, with India posting the highest daily rates of new infections in the world for several weeks. India's healthcare system was overwhelmed by new cases, and supplies of oxygen and other medical equipment became dangerously low. International aid has poured into the country as death rates have exploded.

Meanwhile, tensions escalated with China along the Kashmir border in April, with a particularly deadly clash in June before both sides pulled their troops back. There also were tensions with Nepal over India's construction of a road in an area under India's control but long claimed by Nepal. Agricultural legislation passed in September was touted by the government as a reform but regarded by many small farmers as putting them at the mercy of the market. In November, farmers began demonstrating outside New Delhi, blocking main roads into the city; the demonstrations continued into 2021, leading the supreme court to suspend the legislation while a committee it appointed sought a solution.

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